simulated only · updated 2026-11-05T23:46:49Z · spot 0s ago · window 27/28 settled
bankroll
$963.79
realized P/L
-36.21 (-3.62%)
trades
10
win rate
30%
open
0
window
KXBTC15M-26NOV051900
spot
$75,970
yes bid / ask
0.58 / 0.59
model P(yes)
0.66
time left
13m 13s
equity
start 1,000.00 - low 959.84 - high 1,000.00 - now 963.79
open positions
window
side
entry
qty
since
flat - waiting for an edge
recent trades
time
window
side
fill
outcome
P/L
22:48:15
KXBTC15M-26NOV051800
NO
0.77 x 6
no
+1.30
22:34:22
KXBTC15M-26NOV051745
YES
0.36 x 13
no
-4.89
02:01:18
KXBTC15M-26NOV042115
YES
0.41 x 11
yes
+6.30
01:17:17
KXBTC15M-26NOV042030
NO
0.78 x 6
no
+1.24
01:11:24
KXBTC15M-26NOV042015
YES
0.66 x 7
no
-4.73
00:17:38
KXBTC15M-26NOV041930
YES
0.47 x 31
hard stop: mark 0.17 <= 0.26
-10.46
00:07:10
KXBTC15M-26NOV041915
NO
0.17 x 86
model flip: P(yes) 0.83 > 0.70
-4.98
00:04:08
KXBTC15M-26NOV041915
NO
0.27 x 54
model flip: P(yes) 0.71 > 0.70
-3.06
23:46:25
KXBTC15M-26NOV041900
YES
0.33 x 45
hard stop: mark 0.11 <= 0.18
-11.34
22:52:20
KXBTC15M-26NOV041800
YES
0.28 x 53
model flip: P(yes) 0.25 < 0.30
-5.59
recent windows
open
window
strike
final
result
23:45
KXBTC15M-26NOV051900
75,937.74
0.00
open
23:30
KXBTC15M-26NOV051845
75,782.09
75,937.74
YES
23:15
KXBTC15M-26NOV051830
75,322.01
75,782.09
YES
23:00
KXBTC15M-26NOV051815
75,601.94
75,322.01
NO
22:45
KXBTC15M-26NOV051800
75,723.21
75,601.94
NO
22:30
KXBTC15M-26NOV051745
75,870.02
75,723.21
NO
22:15
KXBTC15M-26NOV051730
75,965.76
75,870.02
NO
22:00
KXBTC15M-26NOV051715
75,725.90
75,965.76
YES
17:30
KXBTC15M-26NOV051245
75,766.97
75,859.45
YES
10:45
KXBTC15M-26NOV050600
80,254.55
80,185.06
NO
10:30
KXBTC15M-26NOV050545
80,419.18
80,254.55
NO
10:15
KXBTC15M-26NOV050530
80,323.83
80,419.18
YES
07:00
KXBTC15M-26NOV050215
80,553.75
80,575.33
YES
02:00
KXBTC15M-26NOV042115
0.00
80,660.48
YES
01:45
KXBTC15M-26NOV042100
80,630.00
80,635.04
YES
01:30
KXBTC15M-26NOV042045
80,327.61
80,630.00
YES
01:15
KXBTC15M-26NOV042030
80,464.18
80,327.61
NO
01:00
KXBTC15M-26NOV042015
80,469.66
80,464.18
NO
00:45
KXBTC15M-26NOV042000
80,678.64
80,469.66
NO
00:30
KXBTC15M-26NOV041945
80,629.98
80,678.64
YES
00:15
KXBTC15M-26NOV041930
80,631.87
80,629.98
NO
00:00
KXBTC15M-26NOV041915
80,419.69
80,631.87
YES
23:45
KXBTC15M-26NOV041900
80,625.72
80,419.69
NO
23:30
KXBTC15M-26NOV041845
80,428.06
80,625.72
YES
23:15
KXBTC15M-26NOV041830
80,430.04
80,428.06
NO
23:00
KXBTC15M-26NOV041815
80,652.52
80,430.04
NO
22:45
KXBTC15M-26NOV041800
80,826.28
80,652.52
NO
22:30
KXBTC15M-26NOV041745
80,580.60
80,826.28
YES
latest committee ruling
Quant deskR2 conf 0.42
Model and market are broadly aligned; the edge is thin but real.
Microstructure deskR2 conf 0.30
Flow is mixed; no strong conviction from my side.
Risk officerR2 conf 0.95
No objection. Keep stake inside the risk budget.
ChairR3 conf 0.06
Quant anchor P(yes)=0.58, tilted -0.001 by the discretionary desks, shrunk to 0.57 for model error; 68% weighted agreement, 0.06 confidence. No trade: best net edge -0.016 is below the 0.04 threshold (P(yes)=0.57, yes 0.56/0.57).